3/08/2007

Politics: Bad Mood Rising

I am a firm believer that U.S. Presidential elections are often won or lost based on whether people in the country feel good about the general direction of things in the nation. That being the case, I think that the GOP should be worried about its chances in 2008. The 2006 Congressional flip to the Democrats was caused by worries over the course of the Iraq war, and various scandals surrounding the Republicans such as the Foley page incident. Well, the hits keep on coming. In the past week the Walter Reed Army medical hospital scandal broke due to a Washington Post expose showing that some wounded soldiers have lived in unsanitary rooms and detailing the bureaucratic difficulties many have faced to obtain needed treatment. The scandal resulted in the firings of the Secretary of the Army and the hospital's commander. No American wants to feel like their country does not appreciate the sacrifices of wounded soldiers, and this scandal on President Bush's watch will cause many people to conclude that all the rhetoric from politicians (particularly the President) regarding how much the soldier's sacrifices are meaningless words. Granted, President Bush likely had no idea the conditions were so poor in some parts of the hospital, and perhaps was unaware of the bureaucratic difficulties many wounded soldiers face to obtain needed care. However, when things happen in a country the President often gets the credit or blame, whether it is deserved or not, and I believe that in the minds of many people the Commander in Chief of the military and his party which has primarily led the war effort for the last few years will bear the blame for it. This will have a more negative effect on the GOP's chances in 2008 than the Scooter Libby conviction. Most Americans assume all politicians are shady and dishonest and thus will not care too much about this incident. The good news if you are hoping for a GOP President in 2008? The election is 20 months away, and neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama are unbeatable candidates.

1 comment:

fsu graduate christian fellowship said...

I think you hammer is in the vicinity of the nail on this one James. The overall mood of the country is dark and angry. Americans like easy resolutions, and I think if the GOP doesn't nominate somebody who's seen as a real outsider (e.g. Guliani) then they'll probably lose.

On the other hand the GOP gets a big shot in the harm from Hillary's obvious "it's me or nobody" attitude. The last two presidential elections were the Democrats' to lose, and they still managed to do it. As hard a time as the Republicans will have in triangulating their natural constituents this time around the Dems always have a harder time with that than the GOP.