Why Evangelical Churches are Growing and Mainline Churches are Dying

My friend Jay Woodham directed me to a very interesting interview with Rodney Stark regarding his theory as to why the "mainline" denominations (Presbyterian, Episcopalian, Methodist; etc.) are hemorrhaging members and dying. Dr. Stark is a professor at Baylor University specializing in religion and sociology who obtained his PhD from Cal-Berkley. Essentially, Dr. Stark argues that the clergy of the mainline denominations is to blame for the decline because they have abandoned traditional orthodox Christianity. The article is HERE and is a must read.

Why You Should Be Wary of News Reports

With age I have become increasingly skeptical of newspaper and internet news reporting of "scientific studies" in the social sciences because they almost always misrepresent the study's claims, assert that the study proves things that it does not, and contain faulty logic. I offer as exhibit A the following AP wire service story: Teen Sex Not Always Bad for School Performance. Let's go line by line and examine it.

LOS ANGELES – There's good news for parents who worry that their teenagers' sex lives are affecting their school performance: A provocative new study has found that teens in committed relationships do no better or worse in school than those who don't have sex.

• Yes, nothing to worry about other than perhaps a teenage pregnancy. And sexually transmitted diseases. Also, I note that the study is apparently provocative.
  

The same isn't true for teens who "hook up." Researchers found that those who have casual flings get lower grades and have more school-related problems compared with those who abstain.

• Oh, so if the teenagers are just hooking up then they do have lower grades and more problems. So, taken as a whole teens that practice abstinence will have higher grades than teens engaged in sexual activity.
  

The findings, presented Sunday at a meeting of the American Sociological Association in Atlanta, challenge to some extent assumptions that sexually active teens tend to do poorer in school.

• If there are such assumptions, the study actually verifies them because it shows that teenage sex at best does not harm academic performance and often correlates to lower academic performance.
  

It's not so much whether a teen has sex that determines academic success, the researchers say, but the type of sexual relationship they're engaged in. Teens in serious relationships may find social and emotional support in their sex partners, reducing their anxiety and stress levels in life and in school.

• So, teens in "serious relationships" find social and emotional support which helps them to do well in school? First, this is pure conjecture. Second, as I recall, the performance of sexually active teens in "serious relationships" does not differ from abstinent teens. Accordingly, I do not see how the alleged positive psychological effects of committed teenage sex can be said to be improving these student's academic performance.
  

"This should give some comfort to parents who may be concerned that their teenage son or daughter is dating," said sociologist Peggy Giordano of Bowling Green State University, who had no role in the research. Teen sex is "not going to derail their educational trajectories," she said.

• Unless a pregnancy results. Or a sexually transmitted disease. Or there might be some negative emotional and/or spiritual consequences. Or their committed sexual relationship ends and they start hooking up.
  

Last year, nearly half of high school students reported having sexual intercourse, and 14 percent have had four or more partners, according to a federal survey released this summer.

• Wow, a statement of fact untainted by conjecture or bad logic!
  

For the study, University of California, Davis sociologist Bill McCarthy and University of Minnesota sociologist Eric Grodsky analyzed surveys and school transcripts from the largest national follow-up study of teens that began during the 1994-95 academic year. The researchers said not much has changed in terms of when teens first have sex or attitudes toward teen sex in the past decade.

• Let's assume this reporting is accurate too.
  

The duo examined how teens' sexual behaviors affected their learning and controlled for factors that might influence their results.

Among the findings:

_Teens in serious relationships did not differ from their abstinent counterparts in terms of their grade-point average, how attached they are to school or college expectations. They were also not more likely to have problems in school, be suspended or absent.

• The study limits itself to the academic consequences of teenage sex. Given that there is more to life than academics it appears that this finding does not in any way prove that such relationships are beneficial. This study, even if taken at face value, does not mean that parents are wrong to be concerned if their teenager is having sex.
  

_Compared with virgins, teens who have casual sex had lower GPAs, cared less about school and experienced more problems in school. For example, female teens who have flings had GPAs that were 0.16 points lower than abstinent teens. Male teens who have casual sex had GPAs that were 0.30 points lower than those who do not have sex. Teens who hook up also were at greater risk of being suspended or expelled and had lower odds of expecting to go to college.

• Gosh, it looks like parents should be worried about their child's academic performance if their teenager is sexually active.
  

Teens who have sex — whether it's a serious or casual relationship — were at higher risk of being truant and dropping out compared with teens who don't have sex. The researchers said the dropout results should be interpreted with caution because the numbers were small.

• Wait, so even teens in committed relationships are more likely to skip school and drop out? Doesn't that seem to contradict the findings of the report? Oh wait, the sample size was a bit small on this one so let's say we need to view this finding with caution and generally disregard it.
  

"Having sex outside of a romantic relationship may exacerbate the stress youths experience, contributing to problems in school," Grodsky said.

• Maybe. This conjecture makes a little more sense than the earlier bit about the positive psychological effects of sex in a committed relationship because at least here there is a correlation between hooking up and a worse academic performance when compared with abstinent teens.
  

In a statement, the Family Research Council said the study confirms what the group has long advocated about the negative consequences of casual sex.

• I doubt that this study confirms all the negative consequences of casual sex, but it is fair for the FRC to note that it identifies a correlation with poor academic performance.
  

But the council said it "would not interpret less severe educational impacts on students involved in `committed' sexual relationships as a green light for comprehensive" sex education.

• I would agree that the study does not "scientifically prove" that comprehensive sex education should be mandated in all schools.
  

University of Southern California sociologist Julie Albright disagreed. She said it might be time to revamp sex education to "emphasize the importance of relationships and spell out the consequences of casual sex."

• Ms. Albright hopefully is merely a proponent of sex-ed and doesn't actually believe that this study shows that sex-ed should be imposed. In fact, if sex-ed increases the number of teens that engage in the hookup sex then this study likely hurts her position.
  

The study dispels the notion that all teen sex is bad, said Marie Harvey, professor of public health at Oregon State University.

• Uh, no, it doesn't. The study found that sexually active teens in relationships do not have worse grades than abstinent teens. Does this show that such behavior does not have other negative consequences? No.
  

"The type of relationship really matters. When it comes to sexual behavior, it takes two to tango," said Harvey, adding that safe sex should be practiced to prevent teen pregnancy and sexually transmitted diseases.

• Did I miss the part where the study says anything about practicing safe sex and the correlation to academic performance? As far as I can tell, the study concludes that casual sex results in poorer academic performance and says nothing about how this result is mitigated if condoms are used.

_____________________________________________________________

So there you have it. I hope I've shown why a healthy dose of skepticism is wise when reading reporting on the latest sociological study.

The original study can be found HERE