News: California Arson

Sadly, a wildfire was started by an arsonist near the city of Palm Springs, California today. The fire has already claimed the lives of four firemen and has burned thousands of acres. It is obviously a terrible thing that is happening, and one hopes that there will be no further loss of life, that the fires will be controlled shortly, and that the arsonist is caught.

I have a difficult time understanding what motivates this particular type of arsonist. Generally, we think of crimes as an attempt to gain some item by an illegal means, or as a form of revenge. The arson of a building or workplace is likely often done for such reasons. However, there is no particular person being attacked in a forest fire, and there is no material gain the arsonist realizes in this act. We hear about the dysfunction of being fascinated by fire or starting fires that some people have, but there is obviously a difference between lighting minor things on fire and developing a plot to create a raging firestorm that is likely to kill people and destroy homes. The arsonist (who starts a forest fire) appears to strike out at society in general, or the community. A general hatred of the world we live in is my guess at the state of mind of the arsonist, but it is no more than a guess. If the person who set this particular fire is captured, it will be interesting to see what the motivation behind this act was.

Sports: Noles Lose; Bucs Win; Champ Car World Series

FSU Loses
Florida State continued its least successful season in over 2 decades with a 24-19 loss to Boston College, which was earned when Drew Weatherford threw a horrid interception that was returned by BC for a touchdown shortly before halftime. The Noles have a minimal margin of error when playing any solid squad, and that play clearly crossed the line and was the difference in the game. With the latest loss, stories about FSU booster discontent with the state of the program have entered the national news, with ESPN now covering the situation. Expect things to get worse before they get better as FSU will win 7 or 8 games and Coach Bowden will not be forced to make major staff changes until the team likely bottoms out next year competing against a very difficult schedule (Florida, Miami, Virginia Tech, BC, Clemson, Alabama and more).

Bucs Win on Miracle Kick
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Philadelphia Eagles 23-21 on the strength of Ronde Barber's two interception returns for touchdown and a SIXTY-TWO yard field goal at the buzzer by Matt Bryant. It seemed absurd that the Bucs would even attempt to make what would be the 3rd longest field goal in NFL history coming from a kicker who is solid, but had never made a kick beyond 50 yards. The entire Matt Bryant story is a pretty cool one, and I recommend Mike Bianchi's column to you if you'd like to read about it.

Champ Car Crowns Champion Down Under
Sebastien Bourdais won the Champ Car World Series points title for the 3rd straight year after his 8th place finish at the Lexmark Indy 300 at Surfer's Paradise, Australia. Nelson Phillipe won the race, and in so doing became the youngest winner in Champ Car history. Most folks prefer NASCAR to Champ Car or IRL racing, but I really enjoy the variety of street courses and road circuits the Champ Car World Series and the IRL offer along with the speed of the cars.

2006 Florida Statewide Elections Page

On November 7, 2006, Floridians will head to the polls and cast ballots in statewide elections for a multitude of state and federal offices. The positions of Governor, Chief Financial Officer, Attorney General, Agriculture Commissioner will all be on the line, as will state House and Senate seats, federal House and Senate seats, and multiple state constitutional provisions. Keeping in mind that an informed voter is the best order, here is all the information you need to learn about the various candidates and issues, stay up to date on the latest developments, and track the results on election night.

Federal Offices

US Senate: Katherine Harris (R) vs. Bill Nelson (D)

US House
District 1: Jeff Miller (R) vs. Joe Roberts (D)
District 2: Allen Boyd (D)
District 3: Corrine Brown (D)
District 4: John Blade (Write) vs. Ander Crenshaw (R) vs. Bob Harms (D)
District 5: Virginia Brown-Waite (R) vs. John Russell (D)
District 6: David Bruderly (D) vs. Cliff Stearns (R)
District 7: John Chagnon (D) vs. John Mica (R)
District 8: Clay Hill (Write) vs. Wes Hoaglund (Ind.) vs. Ric Keller (R) vs. D.J. Mauro (Const.) vs. Larry Sapp (Write) vs. Charlie Stuart (D)
District 9: Gus Bilirakis (R) vs. Phyllis Busansky (D) vs. Andrew Pasayan (Write)
District 10: Salvatore Fiorella (W) vs. Samm Simpson (D) vs. C.W. Young (R)
District 11: Eddie Adams, Jr. (R) vs. Kathy Castor (D) vs. Jim Greenwald (Write) vs. R.J. Spencer (Write)
District 12: Ed Bowlin (Ind.) vs. Adam Putnam (R) vs. Joe Viscusi (Ind.)
District 13: Vern Buchanan (R) vs. Christine Jennings (D)
District 14: "Dan" (Write) vs. Richard Grayson (Write) vs. Connie Mack (R) vs. Robert Neeld (D)
District 15: Bob Bowman (D) vs. Dave Weldon (R)
District 16: Tim Mahoney (D) vs. Joe Negron (R) vs. Emmie Ross (Ind.)
District 17: Kendrick Meek (D) vs. Eric Simpson (Write)
District 18: David Patlak (D) vs. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) vs. Margaret Trowe (Write)
District 19: Robert Wexler (D)
District 20: Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)
District 21: Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) vs. Frank Gonzalez (D)
District 22: Neil Evangelista (Ind.) vs. Ron Klein (D) vs. Clay Shaw (R)
District 23: Alcee Hastings (D)
District 24: Clint Curtis (D) vs. Tom Feeney (R)
District 25: Michael Calderin (D) vs. Mario Diaz-Balart (R)


Florida Statewide Offices

Governor: Charlie Crist (R) vs. Jim Davis (D)
Chief Financial Officer: Tom Lee (R) vs. Alex Sink (D)
Attorney General: Skip Campbell (D) vs. Bill McCollum (R)
Agriculture Commissioner: Charles Bronson (R) vs. Eric Copeland (D)

Florida Legislature
Senate
District 2: Durrell Peaden (R)
District 4: Don Gaetz (R)
District 6: Al Lawson (D)
District 8: Joseph Ellyson (Write) vs. Jim King (R) vs. Marsha Morrison (Write)
District 10: Victoria Brake (Write) vs. Stephen Gorham (D) vs. Ronda Storms (R)
District 12: Victor Crist (R) vs. Burt Linthicum (Const.)
District 14: Ed Jennings, Jr. (D) vs. Steve Oelrich (R)
District 16: Kim Berfield (R) vs. Charlie Justice (D)
District 18: Arthenia Joyner (D) vs. Eric Suntich (Write)
District 20: Carey Baker (R)
District 22: Lee Constantine (R) vs. Jeremiah Jaspon (D)
District 24: Bill Posey (R)
District 26: Mike Haridopolos (R)
District 28: Ken Pruitt (R) vs. Stan Smilan (D)
District 30: Ted Deutch (D) vs. Karl Dickey (Lib.) vs. George Haragones (Write)
District 32: Kenneth Lunkins (Write) vs. Jeremy Ring (D)
District 34: Nan Rich (D)
District 36: Alex Diaz de la Portilla (R) vs. Angie Rodriguez (Write)
District 38: Leighton Lang (Write) vs. Alejandro Rizo (Write) vs. Alex Villalobos (R)
District 40: Rudy Garcia (R)

House of Representatives
With 120 different races, it would take too much time to post the websites for each candidate. However here is a list of each of the candidates running in each district via the Florida Division of Elections. Additionally, Project Vote Smart has a list of each candidate running along with information on the candidates political career and stances on issues if supplied.

State Constitutional Amendments
Six different amendments will be on the ballot this November, and they can be found here.

Newspapers: Florida Times Union; Florida Today; Gainesville Sun; Miami Herald; Orlando Sentinel; Pensacola News Journal; St. Petersburg Times; Tallahassee Democrat; Tampa Tribune

The Sayfie Review (Compilation of all the day's political stories)

Sports: 2006 MLB World Series Prediction

The 2006 MLB World Series matches up the Detroit Tigers vs. St. Louis Cardinals in a David vs. Goliath matchup. The Tigers were the best team in the AL through most of the season, only falling to a wild card and merely 95 wins due to a late-season slump. They dumped the favored Yankees 3-1 in the ALDS and the A's 4-0 in the ALCS. The Cardinals won only 83 games during the season, almost blowing an insurmountable division lead to the Astros over the last two weeks, but recovered to beat the Padres and Mets in the NL Playoffs. Everyone is picking the Tigers.

I agree with the conventional wisdom, as the Tigers are superior to the Cards in the starting rotation, bullpen, and batting order. However, though the Cards are not the equal to the Tigers in any of these areas, they do have the strength in the starting rotation with Carpenter as their ace, Suppan as a clutch pitcher, and Reyes as a rookie with good enough stuff to shut down a lineup. The Tigers have the superior rotation, but three of their four starters are very young, and veteran Kenny Rogers has had some postseason difficulties prior to this year. The heart of the Cardinals order is equal to the Tigers, and they have the best player in the series in Pujols. The Tigers hitting advantage comes from superior complementary players such as Inge, Casey and Granderson. The Tigers have the superior and more experienced bullpen, particularly if Zumaya is healthy. However, experience of a different sort will play a part in the Series. The Cards have experience playing in a World Series, as they participated in the 2004 Fall Classic where they served as cannon fodder for the Red Sox. Being able to concentrate and not let nerves get to you is a huge part of succeeding in sports, and the Cards should have an advantage in this area. The key to the series is whether St. Louis can take one of the first two matchups in Detroit, as the series will head back to St. Louis for the middle three games after that and Carpenter and Suppan are expected to start games 3 and 4. If St. Louis can steal a win in Detroit, they will have a fighting chance. Look for a split in Detroit, the first two games in St. Louis to be split, but for the Tigers to defeat the Cards rookie Reyes in game 5 and finish off the Series in Detroit in front of the home fans in the sixth game because there is no way Jeff Weaver wins an elimination game.

Prediction: Tigers over Cardinals 4 games to 2

Misc: White and Nerdy

Weird Al's latest song is a pretty funny one...

Christianity: Classic "God Stuff" on the Prosperity Doctrine

Here is a classic clip from the Daily Show--Craig Kilborn era--mocking Christian prosperity gospel teachers. The prosperity gospel teaches that Jesus was rich, and that if you are a faithful Christian, God will bless you with riches and good health. The problem is that this is a lie. According to this doctrine, some suburban millionaire attending a prosperity gospel megachurch is more faithful and blessed than a person who is being persecuted for their faith in a third-world country. Just as reprehensively, it stands to reason that if you aren't rich or have problems in your life, it is because you lack faith. So, if a family has a young child with cancer, the parents can blame themselves for not having the faith to keep the child well or to provide for a healing. This is just wicked. God may choose to bless you with riches and health, and wealth in and of itself is not evil. However, Christ said wealth is perhaps the greatest barrier to heaven (it is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to reach heaven), and it seems odd that Jesus would grant riches to those who are truly faithful. Jesus is interested in us having a changed moral character, not in being our cosmic vending machine.

As for those who teach the prosperity gospel, it must be lovely to constantly request money from often poor Christians so one can live in a mansion, own a private jet, and drive a luxury car. I have no doubt that these folks are "taking up their cross and following Jesus." However, in their case it is a 24 karat gold cross that has been paid for by their followers. I would suggest that anyone who believes in the prosperity gospel and is consumed with amassing wealth consider the parable of the sheep and the goats.

Arts and Entertainment: No Wynn Scenario Would Have Been Preferred

Billionaire casino developer Steve Wynn had a bit of a clumsy mishap the other day and damaged something in his office the other day. For the normal person, this would mean at worst damaging a nice suit, or perhaps one's personal computer. For Wynn, who is an art collector and has a few more nice things in his office than the average person, it meant damaging Picasso's The Dream by accidentally poking a hole in it while showing it to some friends. I am not a fan of either Picasso the man or his works, so I am not exactly heartbroken over this, but it will be interesting to see if the painting can be repaired.

Science: Study Shows Possible Correlation Between TV Viewing and Autism

Gregg Easterbrook reports today on a Cornell Study that shows a correlation between autism and television viewing by children 3 years old or less. If you have children or grandchildren, you should read Easterbrook's article and consider reducing the amount of TV that your little ones are watching.

News: Navy Seal Sacrifices Life to Save Brothers in Arms

Here is an amazing story of sacrifice as a Navy SEAL jumped on a grenade to save the lives of his comrades. Condolences to his family and friends, who must be both grieving and yet incredibly proud.

Fun Time: Baby Got Book

Here is an oldie but a goodie...

News: North Korean Cretin

North Korea and it's "dear leader" Kim Jong Il claimed on Monday October 9th that they has successfully detonated a nuclear weapon. All rational nations, including the US, immediately condmened the action and stated that coercive diplomatic action could be expected. Certainly, this is a wise move as North Korea's communist regime under Kim Jong Il is dangerous--not because they are likely to start a war in the region, but rather because the nation is so poor, they might be willing to sell nuclear know-how and materials for the right price. Though it may seem like a terrible idea to sell nuclear materials and plans to terrorists or outside parties as it might earn you some missle strikes from the US, but North Korea's leader is not the most predictable or perhaps even mentally stable leader.

North Korea detonated the bomb in order to increase its own security against possible attacks from China or the US, and to increase the nation's prestige and bargaining power in the international community. Though there has been some question as to how successful the nuclear test was, there now appears little doubt that one occurred. The goal of the US and most of the international community will be to pressure North Korea to give up its nuclear ambitions and end its development of nuclear weapons. Diplomacy will be the means used by the US to achieve this goal, but China and Russia are going to attempt to use the situation to their advantage. Particularly in the case of China, North Korea constitutes a fellow Communist country and a nation that it can try to use to increase China's prestige and power in the region. China views itself as the primary power broker in the far east, and undoubtedly wants to be in the position to dictate what can and cannot be done to its neighbor. Additionally, a little bit of perceived instability in the region does not hurt the Chinese. North Korea is not about to attack China, and if North Korea were to sell nuclear materials to rogue states or terrorist nations, it is unlikely those materials would be used to attack the Chinese. To the extent that China is viewed as a necessary stabilizing power in the region, it will strengthen that nation's bargaining power on a multitude of issues. Look for China to allow sanctions, but use it's possible veto in the UN Security Council to water them down moderately.

Misc: Hebrew Crunk

Taglit-birthright Israel is a foundation that provides free trips to Israel for young Jewish men and women aged 18-26. From my limited knowledge, the program looks perfectly legit and has a brief statement of its purposes here. This sounds like a wonderful opportunity that I imagine tens of thousands have taken advantage of, and one hopes that with the Hezbollah conflict having receeded the program will continue going strong. As part of its ongoing mission to introduce a Jewish heritage to young people, the organization produced the video below to celebrate Rosh Hashanah, which is one of the funniest and cleverest things I've seen in a while.

Politics: Increased Ecumenicalism and (perhaps) Evangelical Support for Romney in '08

If you can get past the gratuitous cheap shots against conservative Christians in the second paragraph, you'll find a pretty good article at slate.com detailing how the "religious right" has become more ecumenical over time and sketching out the influence of Richard John Neuhaus and First Things magazine in those changes. The article goes on to note that the increased ecumenical tenor of the movement may give hope to Mitt Romney in his hopes to be the Republican nominee for President in 2008. Regardless of whether Romney is the Republican nominee, I for one am grateful that many Christians have adopted a more ecumenical outlook in attempting to enact just laws and change the culture via the political process. This process is not only happening in the ecumenical sense (different denominations) but also in the political sense as there appears to be a slowly increasing willingness among politically conservative and liberal Chirstians to join together in common cause when appropriate (as seen in some conservatives taking conservationism more seriously, and some social liberals--particularly in minority communities--seeing the value in school choice).

Sports: MLB League Championship Series (2nd Round) Playoff Predictions

The first round of the MLB Playoffs was filled with surprises with the underdog Tigers defeating the $200 million Yankees, the A's sweeping the favored Twins, and the previously slumping Cardinals dispatching the Padres. The Mets were the only squad that was both favored by the experts and managed to advance, thanks in large part to the stupidity of the Dodgers in game 1 of their series. There is no prohibitive favorite to win the World Series now that the Yankees are eliminated, which should make for some competitive baseball.

American League
Tigers over Athletics (4 games to 2): Both of these squads come into this series with tons of momentum after convincing wins in the Division Series. Both squads feature good starting rotations and deep and talented bullpens. The x-factor in the series is Rich Harden, the A's starting pitcher who has dominant stuff but hasn't pitched many innings this year due to injury. If he is well-rested and sharp, the A's rotation is the equal of the Tigers. If not, they have no chance in this series. Assuming the squads are equal on pitching, then the team that takes quality at bats and hits will win this series. The Tigers' lineup is deeper and more productive with quality veteran bats such as Pudge Rodriguez, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, Sean Casey, Placido Polanco and others providing production. The A's have a few decent bats like Nick Swisher, Frank Thomas, and Eric Chavez, but they are a lineup that struggles to score runs at times. That will cost them in this matchup as the Tigers advance to the World Series.

National League
Mets over Cardinals (4 games to 3): The Mets are the favorite to win the NL pennant, but with the loss of Pedro Martinez and El Duque Hernandez they have lost half of their starting rotation. However, their hitting lineup is far deeper and superior to the Cardinals, who are dependent on superstar Albert Pujols. Additionally, the Mets have a much better bullpen, as the Cards have had serious problems in their bullpen after Jason Isringhausen went down with injury. The Cardinals didn't put together much of a regular season, but in the playoffs a stopper like ace pitcher Chris Carpenter can carry you a long way. In order for the Cards to win this series, Carpenter has to win twice without losing, and they have to find a way to stop the Mets in two other games. If the Mets beat Carpenter even once, they'll take the series. If not, it is going to be a barn-burner. I think that the Mets lineup will be able to grind down the Cards lesser starters and get into their shaky bullpen. It will be a very entertaining series and a barnburner, but I think the Mets advance to the World Series for a fun matchup with Detroit.

Fun Time: George Lucas as LOTR Director

Ever wonder what the commentary on the Lord of the Rings DVDs might have been like if George Lucas had directed them? Turns out, it would be pretty funny.

Arts and Entertainment: Pac Man Fever

If you grew up in the early 1980's, then you remember the Pac Man craze. Well, for those of you who, like me, haven't completely left behind your pac-mania here are a couple of cool links. First, here is a great on-line article on the history of Pac Man. After you are done there, you can play Pac Man here.

Misc: Japanese Domino Display

This is a pretty cool display, and though these folks have a bit too much time on their hands, at least they created something cool and fun for people to enjoy with that time.

News: The Amish School Shootings and Forgiveness

The brutal murder of five young Amish girls by a an angry and deranged man in Pennsylvania was truly horrible. Shock and sadness is the natural reaction, along with anger that such an evil would be directed upon defensless girls as young as 7 years old. In the aftermath of the horrible event, perhaps the most striking thing that has happened is that the Amish community and the families of the victims have offered forgiveness to the murderer's family.

In the midst of searing pain, anguish, and loss they have reached out to comfort others. Yet many people are probably wondering why the Amish have reacted in such a way. Perhaps one can understand offering forgiveness to the murderer's family, but not the murderer. However, the grandfather of one of the murdered girls said "We must not think evil of this man." This is radical forgiveness, after all if one were to hate anything or anyone, would it not be grotesque displays of evil and those who perpetrate them? This sort of forgiveness raises serious moral questions. Does forgiveness minimize evil? What is the proper reaction to such evil? What does God require of us?

These are difficult questions. Undoubtedly Christianity is a religion of grace. God offers forgiveness to man, and man is supposed to emulate God (Christ) by acting in love and forgiving others. Yet, there is such a thing as righteous anger, even in the New Testament. Jesus declares that it is better for a person to be drowned and die than for that person to prevent children from coming to Him. He also reserved his harshest words for the religious leaders who took advantage of the poor. Because Jesus is fully God and fully human, his responses to the world around him are the correct responses that a human whose morals and ethics are in proper working order would have. It appears that the proper response to evil is to hate it. Yet, we also know that Jesus taught that forviging one's enemies is the height of moral perfection: “You have heard that it was said, ‘You shall love your neighbor and hate your enemy.’ But I say to you, Love your enemies and pray for those who persecute you, so that you may be children of your Father in heaven; for He makes His sun rise on the evil and on the good, and sends rain on the righteous and on the unrighteous. . . . Be perfect, therefore, as your heavenly Father is perfect.”Jesus modeled this forgiveness in his life by offering forgiveness, including to those who did not seek it (such as the Roman and Jewish officials who conspired in his murder). This also is the proper moral response for a human being. It appears that Jesus models for us both righteous anger in the face of evil, and radical forgiveness--even for those who do not seek it. So, what are we supposed to do?

It is natural for each of us to feel anger when we see evil. In doing so, we emulate God himself who throughout the Bible burns with anger at evil. It is a sign of a rightly ordered mind and moral compass that we dislike evil. However, as Karl Barth, C.S. Lewis, and many others have pointed out, the key message that God has given humanity is that He is gracious to us. Through the history of God's dealings with humanity, He has always offered forgiveness. From consistently offering to forgive his chosen people of Israel if they would repent of their sins to sending Jesus Christ to offer salvation and forgiveness to all peoples, God has shown that forgiveness is at the heart of his character. Thus Christ's command that we are to love our enemies and pray for those who persecute us is a call for us to follow what Christ himself lived out and to emulate the character of God. The apostle John stated that God is love. John said this about God because the "good news" spoken of in the Gospel is that God offers love and forgiveness through Christ. There are two options for dealing with evil: forgiveness or retribution. God offers forgiveness to all throughout each person's life, and only those that reject it in effect choose retribution. If we are to model God, we must offer forgiveness to each person for all their lives, even as we hate the evil that has happened.

Politics: Foley's Folly

The release of emails and instant messages containing lurid communications between U.S. Rep. Mark Foley and certain male Senate pages, and Foley's subsequent resignation have been big news. Foley's actions are certainly disturbing and merit national scorn. Thankfully, there have not been any reports of sexual relations between Foley and any of the pages (yet?) but his actions that have been reported are still reprehensible and a breach of trust making his resignation the only appropriate response. Criminal prosecution may be soon to follow, and I wouldn't be surprised if additional facts continue to come out, since it appears that each day produces new revelations.

So, what is likely to be the fallout from the Foley scandal? Well, there are three obvious potential effects: 1) Foley's seat will go to the Democratic candidate Tim Mahoney; 2) Dennis Hastert will be forced to resign as House Speaker; 3) The scandal flips other congressional races nationally to Democrats, perhaps resulting in a Democratic house majority.

Regarding the first question, I fully expect Tim Mahoney to defeat substitute candidate Joe Negron (even though Negron is a solid candidate in my opinion). I think that local voters will want to punish Foley and the Republican party for this scandal, making it very difficult for Negron to win. Plus, Foley's name will appear on the ballot as required by Florida law, and I can't imagine a majority of the voters putting a check by that guy's name.

The second question is whether Dennis Hastert will be forced to resign his speakership. The key issue here is whether Hastert knew, or should have suspected, that Foley was having inappropriate contact with congressional pages. If so, he needs to resign. I am inclined to think that Hastert probably should have had his suspicions raised when he was notified about some of Foley's messages. His excuse that he was asked by the page's family not to go public is insufficient simply because he owed it to the rest of the pages to make sure that nothing shady was going on. However, I do not think Hastert will resign unless it can be shown that he knew about the more salacious instant messages (which is unlikely) because of the political ramifications of such an act. It would be a tacit admission of guilt and serve to admit that the entire Republican leadership is somehow culpable for Foley's act. This would be incredibly damaging politically, and thus I don't see it happening. As for my personal thoughts, I think Hastert failed to show strong leadership and wisdom and also acted calculatingly for purposes of avoiding a scandal. Even if he does not resign before the election, I think the Republicans should seek a new minority leader after the elections.

The third question is whether this will be a tipping point that results in the Democrats taking back the House of Representatives. I think that it will result in just that. This scandal is going to depress Evangelical turnout sufficiently in some close races, and I wouldn't be surprised if a decent number of Republican voters decide to punish the party and vote for a Democratic candidate. Plus, moderate swing voters will also be rightly appalled by the scandal and be more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate in the voting booth. In the end, it will be impossible to know if the Foley scandal will be what tips the House to the Democrats, but if it happens rest assured that the whole episode certainly didn't help Republican candidates.

Sports: MLB Division Series (1st Round) Playoff Predictions

Baseball's regular season has ended, and the playoffs will begin this Tuesday with Division Series games in each league. The Division series features four different matchups of best of five series, with the winners advancing to the League Championship Series to play for the right to be in the World Series. This year, the American League has almost all of the premier teams in baseball, while the National League is the weakest that I can remember it. However, I expect the various matchups in each league's playoffs to be very competitive because in the AL nothing but quality baseball clubs will be competing, while in the NL nothing but flawed and mediocre clubs will do battle. Here is what I think will happen in the first round Division Series games.

American League
Oakland A's over Minnesota Twins (3 games to 2): The Twins won the Central Division while the A's won the Western Divsion. The majority of commentators are picking the Twins because they played very well down the stretch of the regular season, they have home-field advantage, and Johan Santana (perhaps baseball's best pitcher) could potentially pitch 2 of the 5 games in the series. However, I think Oakland will win the series because of their superior starting pitching depth. Barry Zito is capable of beating Santana if he is on his game, and I just have a feeling that since public opinion is that Santana is close to unbeatable at home, he probably will do just that in these playoffs (he is good, but no one is unbeatable). After Santana, the Twins have two rookies who will start for them on the mound along with Brad Radke, who is an excellent veteran pitcher but is pitching with a stress fracture in his shoulder. I like the chances of a rested Rich Harden, Dan Haren, and Joe Blanton winning those matchups. In the end, I think that the teams split the first four games, and that Johan Santana pitches well in game 5 but doesn't figure in the decision as the A's win late and advance to the ALCS.

New York Yankees over Detroit Tigers (3 games to 2): The Tigers struggled down the stretch and ended up settling for the wildcard and having to face the high-powered Yankees in the first round. Despite their struggles, I think Detroit has an excellent chance to win this series, but that they will fall just short. The Yankees hitting is the best in baseball with guys like Abreu, Jeter, A. Rodriguez, Matsui, Sheffield, Damon, Giambi and more capable of touching up almost any pitcher for runs. The Tigers have some good pitchers, but they are young and guys like Verlander and Bonderman appeared to tire down the stretch. I think the Yankees will make the Tigers starters throw plenty of pitches and wear them down. However, the Yanks' pitching is hardly a sure thing as Mussina is solid, but R. Johnson and J. Wright have been inconsistent and C.M. Wang will be tasting his first bit of major MLB playoff pressure. Both squads have good bullpens, with the Tigers stronger at middle relief (Zumaya) and the Yankees stronger at closer (Rivera). That being the case, the team that gets to the other team's starting pitcher for some runs will be the one that wins this series. Given the Yankees firepower, I think they are in a little better position to do just that.

National League
Cardinals over Padres (3 games to 2): Pretty much everyone is counting out the Cardinals after they almost blew a 7 game lead with 12 to play to the Astros. However, the National League is incredibly weak this year, and the Cards probably have the best hitter in the playoffs with Albert Pujols and the best pitcher in Carpenter, which in my mind makes them dangerous. The Padres are considered the team with the strongest pitching, but it is far from dominating after Jake Peavy, as aging starters David Wells, and Woody Williams will join Chris Young will match up against Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan, and Anthony Reyes. Those games could go either way in my opinion, particularly since the Padres have had trouble scoring runs all year. The Cardinals bullpen is certainly weak, but I am not sure if San Diego can take advantage of that fact since its two biggest name hitters, Brian Giles and Mike Piazza, are past their prime. In a fairly close matchup, it is always wise to look for a difference-maker, and I think that Albert Pujols is going to put his team on his back and carry them to a hard-fought series win.

Dodgers over Mets (3 games to 1): The Mets were the only National League team to register a legitimately good season, winning 97 games and running away with the Eastern Divsion title. Thus, they are the World Series favorite in the NL. The Mets are far from a perfect team, though, as they have serious problems in their starting rotation. With Pedro Martinez missing, they have an aged starting rotation consisting of Orlando Hernandez, Tom Glavine, and Steve Trachsel, none of whom were dominating this year. The four starter is a true rookie, John Maine. The Dodgers have the superior rotation with Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux and rookie H.C. Kuo. The Mets have the better hitters with guys like Carlos Delgado, David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran swinging the bats, but the fact they haven't played a meaningful game for months worries me. That and their potentially disastrous rotation. El Duque Hernandez is going to start game one for the Mets, and I think he has run out of smoke and mirrors and will lose that one. After that, the Dodgers will have the momentum and the New York pressure will get to a Mets team filled with guys who have no playoff experience. The result will be the biggest upset of this year's postseason.

Christianity: Thoughts on the Beatitudes Part 1

Attempting to define what the good life is and how to live it was the primary pursuit of the great philosopher Socrates. Put another way, the quest is to determine what is the proper way to live life. This weekend I was reminded of the importance of this question at a beach retreat at St. George Island. Jim Divine, the pastor of Watermark Church in Tallahassee, was the retreat speaker. The Beatitudes were the focus of Pastor Divine's comments during the first session.

The Beatitudes are Jesus' declaration of the personal virtues, actions, and patterns of life that, when present in a life result in a person being blessed. The term blessed in the greek means "large or long" and "happy", so the term appears to mean that the greatest degree of happiness goes to the person who does each of these things. The next question then is what does it mean to be prounced to have "great happiness." Happiness is contingent on how a person's life is being led and the circumstances of that life. This is not to decry happiness, for it is God's will that our happiness be contingent on our circumstances. For instance, the happiness that is experienced in heaven is contingent on the circumstance of our being in the presence of God. Different circumstances and different actions lead to different types of happiness and different reasons why a person is happy.

Here, Jesus is speaking of the greatest happiness, and thus the virtues and actions listed here are those that lead to the greatest happiness. Because God is good, the happiness that is being spoken of here is a happiness that stems from goodness, for the greatest happiness cannot be contrary to the nature of God, who is good. If happiness is good, then the greatest happiness is found in the person of God. Thus the greatest happiness for each of us stems from the character and characteristics of God and being in the circumstance of being in right relation to God. This encompasses all areas of life, and all good things: being loved by and the love of God, love of and being loved by family and friends, enjoyment of God's creation, and much more. Thus, the teaching that Jesus is giving regards those virtues and characters of life that, when enacted in all spheres of life, lead to the greatest degree of happiness.

In the next post in this series, I'll take a look at the first four of the beatitudes and analyze what each instruction entails, and nature of the blessing that corresponds to that virtue or action.

Fun Time: Women--Know Your Limits

A fantastic film from the Harry Enfield Show. I can't tell you how many times this has happened to me.

Arts and Entertainment: Emerging Into Arrogance

Touchstone Magazine has on its website an interesting book review of "Faith of My Fathers: Conversations with Three Generations of Pastors About Church, Ministry, and Culture" by Chris Seay. Actually, to call it is more of a takedown than a review, but given some of the examples cited in the review it was deserved. Seay is the pastor of an "emergent" church who has published an ongoing dialog with his father and grandfathers who are also pastors. I will let you read the article for yourself instead of describing it in-depth, but am compelled to note that the review shows that self-righteousness and arrogance can emerge in this new movement.

On the same website but on a different topic, there is also a fun article by William McClay, a Humanities Chair at U of Tennessee, about how trying to be "unique" and "liberated from social conventions"--to show I am the smartest or must urbane person in the room--has become a new social convention. Well worth reading. By the way, I just subscribed to the magazine.

News: Bob Woodward on Iraq--It's Much Worse Than You Think

Famed investigative political reporter Bob Woodward is about to release a new book critical of the Bush administration's conduct of the Iraq war. The book states that US troops are facing over 800 attacks per week in Iraq (one wonders how an "attack" is defined), and that most intelligence estimates indicate that the situation is likely to get worse. Of course, one cannot discuss the book intelligently until it is released. However, if Woodward makes a persuasive case that the war in Iraq is going poorly and the book is widely read and discussed, the real question will be what should be done in lieu of the current prosecution of the war.

Misc: Champ Car World Series Crash--She's OK

This Sunday I was watching the Champ Car World Series race when this horrendous crash occurred. Katherine Legge, the driver of the car at the Road America road race in Wisconson amazingly was just fine after the wreck. The crash occurred when part of the rear wing of her car flew off, causing the car to lose downforce. Legge was heading into an S curve at 160 mph when she started skidding and went into the wall at full force. If you watch the video, you'll see the car disintegrate (as designed to absorb impact) and the cockpit with Legge rolling over and over on the grass. If Legge had been hurt, I wouldn't post it, but since she is OK I don't see any harm in it. By the way, AJ Allmendinger ended up winning the race.

Here is footage of the crash as it was broadcast here in the USA:



Here is the best slow motion footage of the crash:

Politics: The Blame Game

With the midterm elections two months away, it appears that culpability for failing to prevent the 9/11 attacks is going to be a major issue. Bill Clinton went ballistic when Chris Wallace asked him whether his administration did enough to capture Osama Bin Laden, responding that he had tried and failed to get Bin Laden while the Bush administration effectively did not try and even ignored a comprehensive plan to get Bin Laden that the Clinton folks had left behind. This prompted a response from Condoleezza Rice that the Bush administration was at least as focused on terrorism as the Clinton administration had been, and that there was no comprehensive strategy left behind. It appears that both parties are going to try and pin 9/11 on the other, with Republicans attempting to make Democrats look feckless and weak, and Democrats attempting to make Republicans appear incompetent and unwise. The 9/11 Commission Report lays blame on both administrations for failing to prevent the attacks. Yet, in politics admitting to blame is generally considered political suicide, so that certainly won't happen.

In the end, most Americans I believe will blame both parties and both Clinton and Bush for the failure. The result will be that this issue will not be a particular winner for either side politically. The big question is whether the key foreign policy issue of this election is the war in Iraq, or prevention of future terrorism. If the electorate views the Iraq war as the key foreign policy issue, then Democrats will have an advantage. If the electorate is more concerned with preventing future terrorism, then the Republicans will be well served. Look to see which of these two issues (which are admittedly related) predominates over the next two months, as that will provide an indicator of how the national midterm elections will turn out.

Sports: Showing Fortitude

When watching sports, it is important to respect the displays of fortitude that we sometimes observe when athletes compete. This weekend, I had the pleasure of seeing two such displays. On Saturday, Notre Dame's football team was being dominated by Michigan State through much of the first half. This was occurring one week after ND had been humiliated by Michigan. As MSU was piling on the points in the first, ND could either give up their goals and effectively give up, or redouble their efforts to win the game. Notre Dame did the latter, and though their play improved late in the 2nd quarter, they were making little headway on the scoreboard, trailing by 16 after three quarters. The opportunity to be discouraged and doubt was apparent. The squad was playing better, but had not narrowed the defecit. Instead, Notre Dame continued to play hard and concentrate with the result being a stirring 40-37 comeback victory.

If Notre Dame was a profile in perserverance against doubt, Chris Simms' performance on Sunday in Tampa Bay's 26-24 loss to Carolina was an example of perserverance through physical pain and injury. After playing very poorly in two season-opening losses many people were doubting the ability and mental toughness of Simms. When Tampa Bay fell behind 17-0 in the first quarter, Simms could have folded, but instead his performance improved and he brought the Bucs back in the game. In the process, Simms took two vicious hits (one as he scored a touchdown, and another on an uncalled late hit on the next drive), one of which ruptured his spleen. Simms was unaware of what had happened to him. He continued to play after sitting out a few plays (for what appeared to be dehydration) and nearly led the Bucs to a win (Carolina won on a last second deep field goal). After the game, he was rushed to a Tampa hospital for an emergency surgery to remove his ruptured spleen. That Chris Simms continued to play is a testament to his competitive attitude and fortitude. The virtue of perserverance in difficult circumstances and amidst waves of doubt and even pain is one that each of us needs to cultivate. Though these sporting events were only games, they served as a reminder that sometimes perserverance is needed in order to do our duty, perform to the level we have been called, and hopefully accomplish our goals.

Christianity: Barna Group Study Shows Twentysomethings Leaving Church

Here is a disquieting article from The Barna Group that finds that most twentysomething Christians move away from the faith they practiced in their teenage years. According to the study 81% of teenagers say they've attended a church for at least 2 months in their teenage years. However, 61% of young adults who were significantly reached by a Christian community (likely through a youth group or similar ministry) during their teens are spiritually disengaged in their twenties. Only 20% who were churched as a teen remain spiritually active at age 29. Whether these folks generally come back to God in their 30's is being debated, but the fact remains that 3 out of 4 youths who the church reached in their teenage years walk away from the church in their college and early career years.

I'll leave it to each of you to interpret what this means about the Church's ministry, but I agree with the authors of the report that it appears to show that youth groups need to do a better job of discipling young Christians. I could hazard some opinions of some of the failures occuring in youth programs (lack of teaching youth how to think Christianly, segregating them from the church body and thus creating an unfamiliarity with the community of faith they will be in as they reach adulthood, not following up with them to help them join a college ministry). However, it would be unfair to lay the blame on youth groups. Additionally, many churches do a horrendous job of ministering to college students and young professionals, something that amounts to a catastrophic failure of discipleship. My friend Brian Cronin and others have also pointed to a yearning for community and friendships that are not being found in the church. This failure is greater than that of the youth groups, who by design cease their ministry after a high school graduation.

It can be argued that for most people, the two most significant choices in life are made in their twenties: (1) choice of education and career path (2) choice of a marriage partner or at least the type of person they want to marry. The Church, by failing to disciple and strongly reach out to men and women deciding these matters is proclaiming itself to be either irrelevant or disinterested regarding the core matters of a person's life. To quote the article: "These individuals are making significant life choices and determining the patterns and preferences of their spiritual reality while churches wait, generally in vain, for them to return after college or when the kids come. When and if young adults do return to churches, it is difficult to convince them that a passionate pursuit of Christ is anything more than a nice add-on to their cluttered lifestyle." No wonder these folks often consider Christianity an "add-on" to their lives--the body of Christ played no significant part in the major life decisions that formed much of who they are.

Funtime: Dog Lawyers

Clearly, there is a problem in America: dogs. Luckily, fellow lawyers are making sure that "man's best friend" is being held liable for his torts. I'll leave it to you to determine whether the real commerical or the fake one is funnier.

Arts & Entertainment: Megachurch Architecture

There isn't too much going on with regard to the arts that I am aware of, which is probably more of an indictment of me than anything. That being the case, I figured I'd share with you a pictoral survey of Megachurch architecture from Slate.com carried out by their architecture critic Witold Rybczynski. I found it to be quite educational, and I agree with his sense that much of the architecture fails to inspire the worshiper who enters them. Granted, it's not the most important thing about a church, but I do think it is helpful to a worshiper when a church evokes the grandeur of God.

Misc: Japanese Game Show

I believe that this was originally going to be the revamped format for the Scripps-Howard National Spelling Bee. I could be wrong. I note in passing that the Japanese are willing to subject themselves to treatment that is likely contrary to the Geneva Convention. At least this isn't disgusting like some of the game shows on US TV.

Hat tip to Jay Woodham who forwarded the video to me.

News: Paleologus Pope-pourri

Most everyone is aware of the controversy surrounding Pope Benedict XVI's address at the University of Regensburg of Sept. 12, 2006. Large numbers of Muslims have demanded an apology for a citation in the speech to the late 14th century Byzantine emperor Manuel Paleologus who stated while in dialogue with an interlocutor, "Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." The speech goes on to quote Paleologus: "God is not pleased by blood, and not acting reasonably ("syn logo") is contrary to God's nature. Faith is born of the soul, not the body. Whoever would lead someone to faith needs the ability to speak well and to reason properly, without violence and threats.... To convince a reasonable soul, one does not need a strong arm, or weapons of any kind, or any other means of threatening a person with death...."

In order to accurately understand the controversy, the following questions must be answered:

(1) What is the argument that Pope Benedict XVI made in his speech?
(2) Is his argument true? (or at least logically valid and potentially true in light of scripture)
(3) What was his purpose in making this argument?
(4) What was his purpose in including the quote from Manuel Paleologus that many Muslims found offensive?
(5) Was it prudent for the Pope to give the address as a whole, and to include the offending Paleologus quote?

The answers to these questions will indicate whether Pope Benedict acted properly in making the presentation that he did at the University of Regensburg. We will know if what he said is true (or at least could be true, or is worth inquiry), what his intent was, and whether he acted prudently as a practical matter. If his argument is true or worthy of consideration, his intent was good, and he acted with wisdom in giving his speech, he has no culpability. If defects can be found in any of these matters, then some level of criticism is legitimate and some degree of repentence for whatever mistakes were made is appropriate. The first step in making this determination is to understand what exactly the Pope said in his speech.

1. What is the argument that Pope Benedict XVI made in his speech?

• The topic of the speech is whether, "acting unreasonably contradicts God's nature...a Greek idea, or is it always and intrinsically true?" Paleologus argued that not to act in accordance with reason is contrary to God's nature. Further, to use violence to compel faith does not make sense because human "faith is born of the soul, not the body. Whoever would lead someone to faith needs the ability to speak well and to reason properly, without violence and threats" Benedict states that Paleologus is correct in his contention that acting unreasonably is contrary to God's nature, backing up his position with John chapter 1 which states that in the beginning was the "word", which is the term logos--a term that means also reason and the word. As such, God is a rational, creative being that seeks to communicate with His creation. Benedict argues that God is not only rational, but also good, and that the right exercise of reason reveals what is good, or virtue. The history of Christianity's engagement with Greek philosophy then is an occurance that enables man to know God more truly and deeply, and also to know what it means to act virtuously.
• Benedict next discusses some trends in theology that he finds toubling because they have the effect of separating to at least some respect the joining of faith and reason. Benedict mentions the view that God's freedom means that he could have acted contrary than how he has, and the possibility that God's transcendance and otherness are so exalted that our own reason and ability to determine what is good cannot be relied on as a mirror of God's nature. Benedict states that these trends were strong in the Protestant tradition of "sola scriptura" which he states sought to find faith in its original form as found in the Bible, thus devaluing the the position of reason in faith. Eventually, this led to thinkers like Kant stating that he needed to set reason aside in order to make room for faith. When faith is divorced from reason, it can lead to the view that God transcends our senses of what is good and true.
• Benedict states that the Roman Catholic Church "has always insisted that between God and us, between his eternal Creator Spirit and our created reason there exists a real analogy, in which unlikeness remains infinitely greater than likeness, yet not to the point of abolishing analogy and its language (cf. Lateran IV)." Benedict is stating that man can relate to and understand God (imperfectly but with a degree of accuracy leading to understanding despite our human limitations). However, in modern times (the 19th and 20th centuries) reason has been limited to where many believe it can only present truth in a limited sphere of inquiry. First, "only the kind of certainty resulting from the interplay of mathematical and empirical elements can be considered scientific....Hence the human sciences, such as history, psychology, sociology and philosophy, attempt to conform themselves to this canon of scientificity." Secondly, this method automatically excludes the question of God, and leads to the implication that the question is unscientific." Benedict states that this reduces "the radius of science and reason", a reduction that should be questioned. This reduction of the spheres in which science and reason may operate has grave consequences. If theology conforms to this definition of "scientific" the result is a reduction of Christianity to a mere fragment of its former self. Additionally, man ends up being reduced, "for the specifically human questions about our origin and destiny, the questions raised by religion and ethics, then have no place within the purview of collective reason as defined by "science" and must thus be relegated to the realm of the subjective. The subject then decides, on the basis of his experiences, what he considers tenable in matters of religion, and the subjective "conscience" becomes the sole arbiter of what is ethical. In this way, though, ethics and religion lose their power to create a community and become a completely personal matter. This is a dangerous state of affairs for humanity, as we see from the disturbing pathologies of religion and reason which necessarily erupt when reason is so reduced that questions of religion and ethics no longer concern it. Attempts to construct an ethic from the rules of evolution or from psychology and sociology, end up being simply inadequate." Put another way, under this system we choose our beliefs and ethics based primarily on our life experiences and our conscience, without giving necessary thought as to whether our beliefs are true. A community that is concerned with questions of God and ethics and learns from one another is not teneble since the core of religious and ethical beliefs consists of experiences and the subjective conscience which others do not share.
  
• The Pope concludes by stating that reason must not be limited to empirically verifiable matters, nor should faith be divorced from reason. Pope Benedict closes with why it is important that reason is married to faith: "A reason which is deaf to the divine and which relegates religion into the realm of subcultures is incapable of entering into the dialogue of cultures. At the same time, as I have attempted to show, modern scientific reason...bears within itself a question which points beyond itself and beyond the possibilities of its methodology. Modern scientific reason quite simply has to accept the rational structure of matter and the correspondence between our spirit and the prevailing rational structures of nature as a given, on which its methodology has to be based. Yet the question why this has to be so is a real question, and one which has to be remanded by the natural sciences to other modes and planes of thought -- to philosophy and theology. For philosophy and, albeit in a different way, for theology, listening to the great experiences and insights of the religious traditions of humanity, and those of the Christian faith in particular, is a source of knowledge, and to ignore it would be an unacceptable restriction of our listening and responding.

2. Is the Pope's argument true, or at least potentially true?

• At minimum, I believe that the Pope's argument is logically valid, although one might question his premises and the conclusion he draws. Whether each particular point he makes or example he draws in the speech is likely debatable and worthy of debate. Within the sphere of Christian theology and philosophy, his argument certainly appears to have merit. If God is a God of reason, and we are made in his image, then it is certainly possible that he wants us to use our reason as a tool of knowing Him more truly. Equally so, to the extent that a religion or worldview states that God is wholly separate from man and essentially unknowable, then a Christian should question that worldview, as the Christian God is one who took on flesh, dwelt among us, and reconciles us to God, and in fact dwells in those who are reconciled to God via the Holy Spirit. In the matter of morals, it is certainly worth investigating whether our reason means that we can in some sense comprehend the God who is good, and thus have an understanding of what the good is in our lives and what God truly desires. For these reasons, I believe that Pope Benedict acted properly in raising these issues.

3. What was the Pope's Purpose in making this speech?

• If the Pope sought to actively insult Muslims, or to cause violence, then he acted wrongly. However, the text of the speech and the argument as a whole do not point towards this as the overarching purpose of his address. Instead, the purpose was to address the interrelation of faith and reason; to state that God is both rational and good, and that in order to both know God and know what good is (and thus God's will) we must exercise our reason. He also states that what is considered rational cannot be limited to merely questions that can be empirically answered, for to do so means to fail to engage questions regarding the purpose of life. These purposes are good and noble, and thus one should not find the Pope guilty of an evil intent in making his speech.

(4) What was his purpose in including the quote from Manuel Paleologus that many Muslims found offensive?

• I think that the quotation of Paleologus was introduced for the purpose of giving a concrete historical example of the danger that results from relying on force and not reason in doing God's will and spreading His word. Certain segments of Islam, and the leadership of many Islamic countries have accepted the use of violence as being God's will. Pope Benedict could have taken a specific modern example out of saystatements of Bin Laden, but in doing so, his point may have been considered limited to him. However, he did not want to impugn all of modern Islam and its adherents. Thus, he drew a historical example that explained why Manuel Paleologus was debating issues of faith and reason. Throughout much of Paleologus' reign, he was occupied with defending the remnants of the Byzantine empire and Constantinople from Muslim attacks. (One begins to understand why the Emperor was hyperbolic regarding Islam.) To the extent that adherents of any religion, but here specifically Islam, use violence to spread the faith and do God's will, they bring things evil and inhuman. However, where Benedict failed in his speech is in failing to explain the context of Paleologus' quote being from a man who was constantly defending his city against Muslim attackers. Also, the Pope should have been clear that Paleologus' quote that Islam has only brought evil was false. However, to the extent that the sword is used to spread the faith (in the name of any religion) then this is contrary to God's will and does lead to things evil and inhuman.

(5) Was it prudent for the Pope to give the address as a whole, and to include the offending Paleologus quote?

• I believe that giving the address certainly was prudent and acceptable, but that the Pope's failure to fully explain the context of the Paleologus quote was not prudent. Thus, the clarification that the Pope made stating that the offending quote was not his belief, and his regret that he offended some Muslims was appropriate. The rest of the speech is nothing that should be apologized for, and in fact the offensive quote provides an example (when understood in historical context) of the very real issue of using violence rather than reason and love to spread religion.
  

Politics: Power of the Pump...And Maybe 9/11 Too

Gasoline prices are dropping, and whenever I pass a gas station and see that the prices have dropped further I grin slightly and think to myself some combination of "that's good" and "it's about time." Doing some very rough calculations, I note that in an average month I use around 40 gallons of gas, thus the drop in prices from the $3.15 level down to around $2.35 saves me around $30-$35 per month. Not an insubstantial amount, particularly for a person who receives a paltry salary from the Florida Senate. However, it is also fair to say that it is not a life-changing event, even for a person who uses twice the gasoline I do and may save up to $60 per month.

It is interesting to note that this week, President Bush's poll numbers appear to be on an upswing and currently stand at 44 percent. The poll numbers coincide not only with dropping gasoline prices but also with the national remembrance of the 9/11 attacks last weekend. I believe that both are factors in the upswing for Presidential support, but am inclined to think that in the November elections, gasoline prices may play a more important part in determining which party enjoys success, particularly if the numbers in the same survey showing an even split over whether the Iraq war was a mistake are not an aberration after the 9/11 remembrances. Service station signs are ubiquitous wherever a person goes, and driving along a road seeing sign after sign of drastically dropping prices after a previous surge in pricing is a constant repetitive statement that "things are improving." History proves that Americans generally vote their pocketbooks, all else being equal. Gas is the one commodity that almost every voter purchases, and it also has the most visible pricing signs of any item. Although larger economic issues, and foreign policy issues should be the primary issues of this election, do not underestimate the effect of gas prices on the result. If prices at the pump continue to drop over the next two months, those gas station price signs will send a subtle message to voters that causes them to think "things are getting better lately", a message that helps incumbents.

Sports: Slouching Towards Mediocrity

Clemson's 27-20 victory over FSU at Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday was not surprising, other than the fact that Florida State remained close in a game in which it was largely outplayed. If not for a blocked extra point returned for a safety and a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown, the 'Noles would have found themselves down 17-0 at halftime, and likely would have lost by at least two touchdowns. Six years ago, an FSU loss at home to a good (but certainly not great) opponent at home would have been a shock. This year, it was expected, as most people I spoke with last week expected FSU to lose, including myself. A sort of malaise has hit the fans, who are resigned to the fact that Bobby Bowden will not remove his son Jeff from the Offensive Coordinator's job. I would not call it indifference, but most people have come to terms with the fact that FSU is no longer an elite program. This may not be a wholly bad thing, as there are more important matters in life. One positive is that circumventions of the Florida law that guards against nepotism in state hiring practices are now in public disfavor, as the wisdom of that statutory provision is demonstrated during most Saturdays during the fall.

The Blog is Back

Hello everyone, I have decided to make this blog active again, and plan to have a new post up each day of the week. Each day will have a new topic. Monday-Sports, Tuesday-Politics, Wednesday-News, Thursday-Wildcard, Friday-Arts and Entertainment, Saturday-Funtime, Sunday-Christianity. Feel free to comment, though I reserve the right to delete your comment if the language is salty or the content abhorrent. Thanks for checking things out and I hope to hear from you.

German Babies Hate George W. Bush.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Yahoo! News Photos

Much to the President's surprise, apparently.

Escalating Conflict Between Israel and Lebanon

CNN.com - Israel bombards Beirut�amid spiraling attacks - Jul 13, 2006

Bad news out of the middle east generally continues, as Israel is escalating a conflict with Lebanon/Syria due to some of the leaders of those countries being backers of Hezbollah. The conflict began to be exacerbated by each side retaliating for the other capturing prisoners, and has escalated with rocket attacks against Israeli sites and Israel not bombing the major airport in Beirut. This cannot lead anywhere good, quite frankly. A war is always to be avoided when possible, and I hope that people will pray that war will not be the result here, and that all parties involved will work toward a calming of hostilities.

CNN.com - Independence Day liftoff for Discovery - Jul 4, 2006

CNN.com - Independence Day liftoff for Discovery - Jul 4, 2006

It is certainly good news that the space shuttle launched successfully today. However, I continue to believe that if the United States believes that manned space flight is a worthwhile endeavour, it is well past time to focus on the creation of a new space vehicle. The space shuttle technology is from the 1970's, and as one commentator pointed out on ABC's World News Tonight yesterday, can you think of a single piece of equipment in your home that is from the 70's? I cannot.

March Madness

It is amazing the power of the little very low stakes competition at the office can do to people. Each of us has filled out an NCAA Tournament bracket, and all of a sudden everyone is obsessed with college basketball. As a big fan who watches a lot of games, it isn't a big deal to me, but put lunch on the line and all of a sudden some of the ladies in the office who would never watch a game or care are going nuts over games between teams they've never heard of. Which is great, of course. A little fun never hurt anyone. Did I mention that I am winning?

Movie Review: Syriana (*1/2 of 4: Poor to Fair)

Syriana, Stephen Gaghen's political thriller about the oil industry's interests in the Middle East, has one major problem. It is utterly boring. The movie's story is simplistic and without surprises. Various plotlines are introduced slowly over the first hour of the movie. Two oil companies plan to merge, but (of course) there have been payoffs along the way so the US government is investigating. The merging oil company downsizes, causing unemployment and leading young men to become Islamic martyrs. A kindharted crown prince of a middle eastern country wants to transform his country into a liberal, modern state, but the US wants to maintain control over the country's oil and wants him dead. There are more plotlines, but they are not particularly relevant. Everything that happens in these plotlines is perfectly predictable. Syriana is only considered complex or confusing because the various plotlines are revealed slowly in 5-10 minute snippets. So, you get a few minutes of corrupt oilmen planning their merger, then cut to the middle east and a CIA agent, then to the noble prince and so on, going back and forth throughout the movie.

Syriana fails because you know where everything is going. Will the noble crown prince be able to transform his middle eastern nation? Will the corrupt oil companies complete their merger? Well, given that this movie is clearly designed to be a "realistic portrayal" of the interplay between the oil industry and the middle east, you can easily guess. The acting in the movie is good, as George Clooney (CIA agent), Matt Damon (investment analyst), Alexander Siddig (Prince Nasir), and Mazhar Musin as the terrorist Nasim all portray their charaters with conviction. However, the direction and story fails them in the end, as the method of jumping back and forth among numerous plotlines fails to allow any of the characters to develop any complexity. So, when a political thriller is predictible, plodding, and doesn't intorducte any interesting or complex characters what you have, is a bad movie.