Baseball's regular season has ended, and the playoffs will begin this Tuesday with Division Series games in each league. The Division series features four different matchups of best of five series, with the winners advancing to the League Championship Series to play for the right to be in the World Series. This year, the American League has almost all of the premier teams in baseball, while the National League is the weakest that I can remember it. However, I expect the various matchups in each league's playoffs to be very competitive because in the AL nothing but quality baseball clubs will be competing, while in the NL nothing but flawed and mediocre clubs will do battle. Here is what I think will happen in the first round Division Series games.
American League
Oakland A's over Minnesota Twins (3 games to 2): The Twins won the Central Division while the A's won the Western Divsion. The majority of commentators are picking the Twins because they played very well down the stretch of the regular season, they have home-field advantage, and Johan Santana (perhaps baseball's best pitcher) could potentially pitch 2 of the 5 games in the series. However, I think Oakland will win the series because of their superior starting pitching depth. Barry Zito is capable of beating Santana if he is on his game, and I just have a feeling that since public opinion is that Santana is close to unbeatable at home, he probably will do just that in these playoffs (he is good, but no one is unbeatable). After Santana, the Twins have two rookies who will start for them on the mound along with Brad Radke, who is an excellent veteran pitcher but is pitching with a stress fracture in his shoulder. I like the chances of a rested Rich Harden, Dan Haren, and Joe Blanton winning those matchups. In the end, I think that the teams split the first four games, and that Johan Santana pitches well in game 5 but doesn't figure in the decision as the A's win late and advance to the ALCS.
New York Yankees over Detroit Tigers (3 games to 2): The Tigers struggled down the stretch and ended up settling for the wildcard and having to face the high-powered Yankees in the first round. Despite their struggles, I think Detroit has an excellent chance to win this series, but that they will fall just short. The Yankees hitting is the best in baseball with guys like Abreu, Jeter, A. Rodriguez, Matsui, Sheffield, Damon, Giambi and more capable of touching up almost any pitcher for runs. The Tigers have some good pitchers, but they are young and guys like Verlander and Bonderman appeared to tire down the stretch. I think the Yankees will make the Tigers starters throw plenty of pitches and wear them down. However, the Yanks' pitching is hardly a sure thing as Mussina is solid, but R. Johnson and J. Wright have been inconsistent and C.M. Wang will be tasting his first bit of major MLB playoff pressure. Both squads have good bullpens, with the Tigers stronger at middle relief (Zumaya) and the Yankees stronger at closer (Rivera). That being the case, the team that gets to the other team's starting pitcher for some runs will be the one that wins this series. Given the Yankees firepower, I think they are in a little better position to do just that.
National League
Cardinals over Padres (3 games to 2): Pretty much everyone is counting out the Cardinals after they almost blew a 7 game lead with 12 to play to the Astros. However, the National League is incredibly weak this year, and the Cards probably have the best hitter in the playoffs with Albert Pujols and the best pitcher in Carpenter, which in my mind makes them dangerous. The Padres are considered the team with the strongest pitching, but it is far from dominating after Jake Peavy, as aging starters David Wells, and Woody Williams will join Chris Young will match up against Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan, and Anthony Reyes. Those games could go either way in my opinion, particularly since the Padres have had trouble scoring runs all year. The Cardinals bullpen is certainly weak, but I am not sure if San Diego can take advantage of that fact since its two biggest name hitters, Brian Giles and Mike Piazza, are past their prime. In a fairly close matchup, it is always wise to look for a difference-maker, and I think that Albert Pujols is going to put his team on his back and carry them to a hard-fought series win.
Dodgers over Mets (3 games to 1): The Mets were the only National League team to register a legitimately good season, winning 97 games and running away with the Eastern Divsion title. Thus, they are the World Series favorite in the NL. The Mets are far from a perfect team, though, as they have serious problems in their starting rotation. With Pedro Martinez missing, they have an aged starting rotation consisting of Orlando Hernandez, Tom Glavine, and Steve Trachsel, none of whom were dominating this year. The four starter is a true rookie, John Maine. The Dodgers have the superior rotation with Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux and rookie H.C. Kuo. The Mets have the better hitters with guys like Carlos Delgado, David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran swinging the bats, but the fact they haven't played a meaningful game for months worries me. That and their potentially disastrous rotation. El Duque Hernandez is going to start game one for the Mets, and I think he has run out of smoke and mirrors and will lose that one. After that, the Dodgers will have the momentum and the New York pressure will get to a Mets team filled with guys who have no playoff experience. The result will be the biggest upset of this year's postseason.
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