News: California Arson

Sadly, a wildfire was started by an arsonist near the city of Palm Springs, California today. The fire has already claimed the lives of four firemen and has burned thousands of acres. It is obviously a terrible thing that is happening, and one hopes that there will be no further loss of life, that the fires will be controlled shortly, and that the arsonist is caught.

I have a difficult time understanding what motivates this particular type of arsonist. Generally, we think of crimes as an attempt to gain some item by an illegal means, or as a form of revenge. The arson of a building or workplace is likely often done for such reasons. However, there is no particular person being attacked in a forest fire, and there is no material gain the arsonist realizes in this act. We hear about the dysfunction of being fascinated by fire or starting fires that some people have, but there is obviously a difference between lighting minor things on fire and developing a plot to create a raging firestorm that is likely to kill people and destroy homes. The arsonist (who starts a forest fire) appears to strike out at society in general, or the community. A general hatred of the world we live in is my guess at the state of mind of the arsonist, but it is no more than a guess. If the person who set this particular fire is captured, it will be interesting to see what the motivation behind this act was.

Sports: Noles Lose; Bucs Win; Champ Car World Series

FSU Loses
Florida State continued its least successful season in over 2 decades with a 24-19 loss to Boston College, which was earned when Drew Weatherford threw a horrid interception that was returned by BC for a touchdown shortly before halftime. The Noles have a minimal margin of error when playing any solid squad, and that play clearly crossed the line and was the difference in the game. With the latest loss, stories about FSU booster discontent with the state of the program have entered the national news, with ESPN now covering the situation. Expect things to get worse before they get better as FSU will win 7 or 8 games and Coach Bowden will not be forced to make major staff changes until the team likely bottoms out next year competing against a very difficult schedule (Florida, Miami, Virginia Tech, BC, Clemson, Alabama and more).

Bucs Win on Miracle Kick
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Philadelphia Eagles 23-21 on the strength of Ronde Barber's two interception returns for touchdown and a SIXTY-TWO yard field goal at the buzzer by Matt Bryant. It seemed absurd that the Bucs would even attempt to make what would be the 3rd longest field goal in NFL history coming from a kicker who is solid, but had never made a kick beyond 50 yards. The entire Matt Bryant story is a pretty cool one, and I recommend Mike Bianchi's column to you if you'd like to read about it.

Champ Car Crowns Champion Down Under
Sebastien Bourdais won the Champ Car World Series points title for the 3rd straight year after his 8th place finish at the Lexmark Indy 300 at Surfer's Paradise, Australia. Nelson Phillipe won the race, and in so doing became the youngest winner in Champ Car history. Most folks prefer NASCAR to Champ Car or IRL racing, but I really enjoy the variety of street courses and road circuits the Champ Car World Series and the IRL offer along with the speed of the cars.

2006 Florida Statewide Elections Page

On November 7, 2006, Floridians will head to the polls and cast ballots in statewide elections for a multitude of state and federal offices. The positions of Governor, Chief Financial Officer, Attorney General, Agriculture Commissioner will all be on the line, as will state House and Senate seats, federal House and Senate seats, and multiple state constitutional provisions. Keeping in mind that an informed voter is the best order, here is all the information you need to learn about the various candidates and issues, stay up to date on the latest developments, and track the results on election night.

Federal Offices

US Senate: Katherine Harris (R) vs. Bill Nelson (D)

US House
District 1: Jeff Miller (R) vs. Joe Roberts (D)
District 2: Allen Boyd (D)
District 3: Corrine Brown (D)
District 4: John Blade (Write) vs. Ander Crenshaw (R) vs. Bob Harms (D)
District 5: Virginia Brown-Waite (R) vs. John Russell (D)
District 6: David Bruderly (D) vs. Cliff Stearns (R)
District 7: John Chagnon (D) vs. John Mica (R)
District 8: Clay Hill (Write) vs. Wes Hoaglund (Ind.) vs. Ric Keller (R) vs. D.J. Mauro (Const.) vs. Larry Sapp (Write) vs. Charlie Stuart (D)
District 9: Gus Bilirakis (R) vs. Phyllis Busansky (D) vs. Andrew Pasayan (Write)
District 10: Salvatore Fiorella (W) vs. Samm Simpson (D) vs. C.W. Young (R)
District 11: Eddie Adams, Jr. (R) vs. Kathy Castor (D) vs. Jim Greenwald (Write) vs. R.J. Spencer (Write)
District 12: Ed Bowlin (Ind.) vs. Adam Putnam (R) vs. Joe Viscusi (Ind.)
District 13: Vern Buchanan (R) vs. Christine Jennings (D)
District 14: "Dan" (Write) vs. Richard Grayson (Write) vs. Connie Mack (R) vs. Robert Neeld (D)
District 15: Bob Bowman (D) vs. Dave Weldon (R)
District 16: Tim Mahoney (D) vs. Joe Negron (R) vs. Emmie Ross (Ind.)
District 17: Kendrick Meek (D) vs. Eric Simpson (Write)
District 18: David Patlak (D) vs. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) vs. Margaret Trowe (Write)
District 19: Robert Wexler (D)
District 20: Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)
District 21: Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) vs. Frank Gonzalez (D)
District 22: Neil Evangelista (Ind.) vs. Ron Klein (D) vs. Clay Shaw (R)
District 23: Alcee Hastings (D)
District 24: Clint Curtis (D) vs. Tom Feeney (R)
District 25: Michael Calderin (D) vs. Mario Diaz-Balart (R)


Florida Statewide Offices

Governor: Charlie Crist (R) vs. Jim Davis (D)
Chief Financial Officer: Tom Lee (R) vs. Alex Sink (D)
Attorney General: Skip Campbell (D) vs. Bill McCollum (R)
Agriculture Commissioner: Charles Bronson (R) vs. Eric Copeland (D)

Florida Legislature
Senate
District 2: Durrell Peaden (R)
District 4: Don Gaetz (R)
District 6: Al Lawson (D)
District 8: Joseph Ellyson (Write) vs. Jim King (R) vs. Marsha Morrison (Write)
District 10: Victoria Brake (Write) vs. Stephen Gorham (D) vs. Ronda Storms (R)
District 12: Victor Crist (R) vs. Burt Linthicum (Const.)
District 14: Ed Jennings, Jr. (D) vs. Steve Oelrich (R)
District 16: Kim Berfield (R) vs. Charlie Justice (D)
District 18: Arthenia Joyner (D) vs. Eric Suntich (Write)
District 20: Carey Baker (R)
District 22: Lee Constantine (R) vs. Jeremiah Jaspon (D)
District 24: Bill Posey (R)
District 26: Mike Haridopolos (R)
District 28: Ken Pruitt (R) vs. Stan Smilan (D)
District 30: Ted Deutch (D) vs. Karl Dickey (Lib.) vs. George Haragones (Write)
District 32: Kenneth Lunkins (Write) vs. Jeremy Ring (D)
District 34: Nan Rich (D)
District 36: Alex Diaz de la Portilla (R) vs. Angie Rodriguez (Write)
District 38: Leighton Lang (Write) vs. Alejandro Rizo (Write) vs. Alex Villalobos (R)
District 40: Rudy Garcia (R)

House of Representatives
With 120 different races, it would take too much time to post the websites for each candidate. However here is a list of each of the candidates running in each district via the Florida Division of Elections. Additionally, Project Vote Smart has a list of each candidate running along with information on the candidates political career and stances on issues if supplied.

State Constitutional Amendments
Six different amendments will be on the ballot this November, and they can be found here.

Newspapers: Florida Times Union; Florida Today; Gainesville Sun; Miami Herald; Orlando Sentinel; Pensacola News Journal; St. Petersburg Times; Tallahassee Democrat; Tampa Tribune

The Sayfie Review (Compilation of all the day's political stories)

Sports: 2006 MLB World Series Prediction

The 2006 MLB World Series matches up the Detroit Tigers vs. St. Louis Cardinals in a David vs. Goliath matchup. The Tigers were the best team in the AL through most of the season, only falling to a wild card and merely 95 wins due to a late-season slump. They dumped the favored Yankees 3-1 in the ALDS and the A's 4-0 in the ALCS. The Cardinals won only 83 games during the season, almost blowing an insurmountable division lead to the Astros over the last two weeks, but recovered to beat the Padres and Mets in the NL Playoffs. Everyone is picking the Tigers.

I agree with the conventional wisdom, as the Tigers are superior to the Cards in the starting rotation, bullpen, and batting order. However, though the Cards are not the equal to the Tigers in any of these areas, they do have the strength in the starting rotation with Carpenter as their ace, Suppan as a clutch pitcher, and Reyes as a rookie with good enough stuff to shut down a lineup. The Tigers have the superior rotation, but three of their four starters are very young, and veteran Kenny Rogers has had some postseason difficulties prior to this year. The heart of the Cardinals order is equal to the Tigers, and they have the best player in the series in Pujols. The Tigers hitting advantage comes from superior complementary players such as Inge, Casey and Granderson. The Tigers have the superior and more experienced bullpen, particularly if Zumaya is healthy. However, experience of a different sort will play a part in the Series. The Cards have experience playing in a World Series, as they participated in the 2004 Fall Classic where they served as cannon fodder for the Red Sox. Being able to concentrate and not let nerves get to you is a huge part of succeeding in sports, and the Cards should have an advantage in this area. The key to the series is whether St. Louis can take one of the first two matchups in Detroit, as the series will head back to St. Louis for the middle three games after that and Carpenter and Suppan are expected to start games 3 and 4. If St. Louis can steal a win in Detroit, they will have a fighting chance. Look for a split in Detroit, the first two games in St. Louis to be split, but for the Tigers to defeat the Cards rookie Reyes in game 5 and finish off the Series in Detroit in front of the home fans in the sixth game because there is no way Jeff Weaver wins an elimination game.

Prediction: Tigers over Cardinals 4 games to 2

Misc: White and Nerdy

Weird Al's latest song is a pretty funny one...

Christianity: Classic "God Stuff" on the Prosperity Doctrine

Here is a classic clip from the Daily Show--Craig Kilborn era--mocking Christian prosperity gospel teachers. The prosperity gospel teaches that Jesus was rich, and that if you are a faithful Christian, God will bless you with riches and good health. The problem is that this is a lie. According to this doctrine, some suburban millionaire attending a prosperity gospel megachurch is more faithful and blessed than a person who is being persecuted for their faith in a third-world country. Just as reprehensively, it stands to reason that if you aren't rich or have problems in your life, it is because you lack faith. So, if a family has a young child with cancer, the parents can blame themselves for not having the faith to keep the child well or to provide for a healing. This is just wicked. God may choose to bless you with riches and health, and wealth in and of itself is not evil. However, Christ said wealth is perhaps the greatest barrier to heaven (it is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to reach heaven), and it seems odd that Jesus would grant riches to those who are truly faithful. Jesus is interested in us having a changed moral character, not in being our cosmic vending machine.

As for those who teach the prosperity gospel, it must be lovely to constantly request money from often poor Christians so one can live in a mansion, own a private jet, and drive a luxury car. I have no doubt that these folks are "taking up their cross and following Jesus." However, in their case it is a 24 karat gold cross that has been paid for by their followers. I would suggest that anyone who believes in the prosperity gospel and is consumed with amassing wealth consider the parable of the sheep and the goats.

Arts and Entertainment: No Wynn Scenario Would Have Been Preferred

Billionaire casino developer Steve Wynn had a bit of a clumsy mishap the other day and damaged something in his office the other day. For the normal person, this would mean at worst damaging a nice suit, or perhaps one's personal computer. For Wynn, who is an art collector and has a few more nice things in his office than the average person, it meant damaging Picasso's The Dream by accidentally poking a hole in it while showing it to some friends. I am not a fan of either Picasso the man or his works, so I am not exactly heartbroken over this, but it will be interesting to see if the painting can be repaired.

Science: Study Shows Possible Correlation Between TV Viewing and Autism

Gregg Easterbrook reports today on a Cornell Study that shows a correlation between autism and television viewing by children 3 years old or less. If you have children or grandchildren, you should read Easterbrook's article and consider reducing the amount of TV that your little ones are watching.

News: Navy Seal Sacrifices Life to Save Brothers in Arms

Here is an amazing story of sacrifice as a Navy SEAL jumped on a grenade to save the lives of his comrades. Condolences to his family and friends, who must be both grieving and yet incredibly proud.

Fun Time: Baby Got Book

Here is an oldie but a goodie...

News: North Korean Cretin

North Korea and it's "dear leader" Kim Jong Il claimed on Monday October 9th that they has successfully detonated a nuclear weapon. All rational nations, including the US, immediately condmened the action and stated that coercive diplomatic action could be expected. Certainly, this is a wise move as North Korea's communist regime under Kim Jong Il is dangerous--not because they are likely to start a war in the region, but rather because the nation is so poor, they might be willing to sell nuclear know-how and materials for the right price. Though it may seem like a terrible idea to sell nuclear materials and plans to terrorists or outside parties as it might earn you some missle strikes from the US, but North Korea's leader is not the most predictable or perhaps even mentally stable leader.

North Korea detonated the bomb in order to increase its own security against possible attacks from China or the US, and to increase the nation's prestige and bargaining power in the international community. Though there has been some question as to how successful the nuclear test was, there now appears little doubt that one occurred. The goal of the US and most of the international community will be to pressure North Korea to give up its nuclear ambitions and end its development of nuclear weapons. Diplomacy will be the means used by the US to achieve this goal, but China and Russia are going to attempt to use the situation to their advantage. Particularly in the case of China, North Korea constitutes a fellow Communist country and a nation that it can try to use to increase China's prestige and power in the region. China views itself as the primary power broker in the far east, and undoubtedly wants to be in the position to dictate what can and cannot be done to its neighbor. Additionally, a little bit of perceived instability in the region does not hurt the Chinese. North Korea is not about to attack China, and if North Korea were to sell nuclear materials to rogue states or terrorist nations, it is unlikely those materials would be used to attack the Chinese. To the extent that China is viewed as a necessary stabilizing power in the region, it will strengthen that nation's bargaining power on a multitude of issues. Look for China to allow sanctions, but use it's possible veto in the UN Security Council to water them down moderately.

Misc: Hebrew Crunk

Taglit-birthright Israel is a foundation that provides free trips to Israel for young Jewish men and women aged 18-26. From my limited knowledge, the program looks perfectly legit and has a brief statement of its purposes here. This sounds like a wonderful opportunity that I imagine tens of thousands have taken advantage of, and one hopes that with the Hezbollah conflict having receeded the program will continue going strong. As part of its ongoing mission to introduce a Jewish heritage to young people, the organization produced the video below to celebrate Rosh Hashanah, which is one of the funniest and cleverest things I've seen in a while.

Politics: Increased Ecumenicalism and (perhaps) Evangelical Support for Romney in '08

If you can get past the gratuitous cheap shots against conservative Christians in the second paragraph, you'll find a pretty good article at slate.com detailing how the "religious right" has become more ecumenical over time and sketching out the influence of Richard John Neuhaus and First Things magazine in those changes. The article goes on to note that the increased ecumenical tenor of the movement may give hope to Mitt Romney in his hopes to be the Republican nominee for President in 2008. Regardless of whether Romney is the Republican nominee, I for one am grateful that many Christians have adopted a more ecumenical outlook in attempting to enact just laws and change the culture via the political process. This process is not only happening in the ecumenical sense (different denominations) but also in the political sense as there appears to be a slowly increasing willingness among politically conservative and liberal Chirstians to join together in common cause when appropriate (as seen in some conservatives taking conservationism more seriously, and some social liberals--particularly in minority communities--seeing the value in school choice).

Sports: MLB League Championship Series (2nd Round) Playoff Predictions

The first round of the MLB Playoffs was filled with surprises with the underdog Tigers defeating the $200 million Yankees, the A's sweeping the favored Twins, and the previously slumping Cardinals dispatching the Padres. The Mets were the only squad that was both favored by the experts and managed to advance, thanks in large part to the stupidity of the Dodgers in game 1 of their series. There is no prohibitive favorite to win the World Series now that the Yankees are eliminated, which should make for some competitive baseball.

American League
Tigers over Athletics (4 games to 2): Both of these squads come into this series with tons of momentum after convincing wins in the Division Series. Both squads feature good starting rotations and deep and talented bullpens. The x-factor in the series is Rich Harden, the A's starting pitcher who has dominant stuff but hasn't pitched many innings this year due to injury. If he is well-rested and sharp, the A's rotation is the equal of the Tigers. If not, they have no chance in this series. Assuming the squads are equal on pitching, then the team that takes quality at bats and hits will win this series. The Tigers' lineup is deeper and more productive with quality veteran bats such as Pudge Rodriguez, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, Sean Casey, Placido Polanco and others providing production. The A's have a few decent bats like Nick Swisher, Frank Thomas, and Eric Chavez, but they are a lineup that struggles to score runs at times. That will cost them in this matchup as the Tigers advance to the World Series.

National League
Mets over Cardinals (4 games to 3): The Mets are the favorite to win the NL pennant, but with the loss of Pedro Martinez and El Duque Hernandez they have lost half of their starting rotation. However, their hitting lineup is far deeper and superior to the Cardinals, who are dependent on superstar Albert Pujols. Additionally, the Mets have a much better bullpen, as the Cards have had serious problems in their bullpen after Jason Isringhausen went down with injury. The Cardinals didn't put together much of a regular season, but in the playoffs a stopper like ace pitcher Chris Carpenter can carry you a long way. In order for the Cards to win this series, Carpenter has to win twice without losing, and they have to find a way to stop the Mets in two other games. If the Mets beat Carpenter even once, they'll take the series. If not, it is going to be a barn-burner. I think that the Mets lineup will be able to grind down the Cards lesser starters and get into their shaky bullpen. It will be a very entertaining series and a barnburner, but I think the Mets advance to the World Series for a fun matchup with Detroit.

Fun Time: George Lucas as LOTR Director

Ever wonder what the commentary on the Lord of the Rings DVDs might have been like if George Lucas had directed them? Turns out, it would be pretty funny.

Arts and Entertainment: Pac Man Fever

If you grew up in the early 1980's, then you remember the Pac Man craze. Well, for those of you who, like me, haven't completely left behind your pac-mania here are a couple of cool links. First, here is a great on-line article on the history of Pac Man. After you are done there, you can play Pac Man here.

Misc: Japanese Domino Display

This is a pretty cool display, and though these folks have a bit too much time on their hands, at least they created something cool and fun for people to enjoy with that time.

News: The Amish School Shootings and Forgiveness

The brutal murder of five young Amish girls by a an angry and deranged man in Pennsylvania was truly horrible. Shock and sadness is the natural reaction, along with anger that such an evil would be directed upon defensless girls as young as 7 years old. In the aftermath of the horrible event, perhaps the most striking thing that has happened is that the Amish community and the families of the victims have offered forgiveness to the murderer's family.

In the midst of searing pain, anguish, and loss they have reached out to comfort others. Yet many people are probably wondering why the Amish have reacted in such a way. Perhaps one can understand offering forgiveness to the murderer's family, but not the murderer. However, the grandfather of one of the murdered girls said "We must not think evil of this man." This is radical forgiveness, after all if one were to hate anything or anyone, would it not be grotesque displays of evil and those who perpetrate them? This sort of forgiveness raises serious moral questions. Does forgiveness minimize evil? What is the proper reaction to such evil? What does God require of us?

These are difficult questions. Undoubtedly Christianity is a religion of grace. God offers forgiveness to man, and man is supposed to emulate God (Christ) by acting in love and forgiving others. Yet, there is such a thing as righteous anger, even in the New Testament. Jesus declares that it is better for a person to be drowned and die than for that person to prevent children from coming to Him. He also reserved his harshest words for the religious leaders who took advantage of the poor. Because Jesus is fully God and fully human, his responses to the world around him are the correct responses that a human whose morals and ethics are in proper working order would have. It appears that the proper response to evil is to hate it. Yet, we also know that Jesus taught that forviging one's enemies is the height of moral perfection: “You have heard that it was said, ‘You shall love your neighbor and hate your enemy.’ But I say to you, Love your enemies and pray for those who persecute you, so that you may be children of your Father in heaven; for He makes His sun rise on the evil and on the good, and sends rain on the righteous and on the unrighteous. . . . Be perfect, therefore, as your heavenly Father is perfect.”Jesus modeled this forgiveness in his life by offering forgiveness, including to those who did not seek it (such as the Roman and Jewish officials who conspired in his murder). This also is the proper moral response for a human being. It appears that Jesus models for us both righteous anger in the face of evil, and radical forgiveness--even for those who do not seek it. So, what are we supposed to do?

It is natural for each of us to feel anger when we see evil. In doing so, we emulate God himself who throughout the Bible burns with anger at evil. It is a sign of a rightly ordered mind and moral compass that we dislike evil. However, as Karl Barth, C.S. Lewis, and many others have pointed out, the key message that God has given humanity is that He is gracious to us. Through the history of God's dealings with humanity, He has always offered forgiveness. From consistently offering to forgive his chosen people of Israel if they would repent of their sins to sending Jesus Christ to offer salvation and forgiveness to all peoples, God has shown that forgiveness is at the heart of his character. Thus Christ's command that we are to love our enemies and pray for those who persecute us is a call for us to follow what Christ himself lived out and to emulate the character of God. The apostle John stated that God is love. John said this about God because the "good news" spoken of in the Gospel is that God offers love and forgiveness through Christ. There are two options for dealing with evil: forgiveness or retribution. God offers forgiveness to all throughout each person's life, and only those that reject it in effect choose retribution. If we are to model God, we must offer forgiveness to each person for all their lives, even as we hate the evil that has happened.

Politics: Foley's Folly

The release of emails and instant messages containing lurid communications between U.S. Rep. Mark Foley and certain male Senate pages, and Foley's subsequent resignation have been big news. Foley's actions are certainly disturbing and merit national scorn. Thankfully, there have not been any reports of sexual relations between Foley and any of the pages (yet?) but his actions that have been reported are still reprehensible and a breach of trust making his resignation the only appropriate response. Criminal prosecution may be soon to follow, and I wouldn't be surprised if additional facts continue to come out, since it appears that each day produces new revelations.

So, what is likely to be the fallout from the Foley scandal? Well, there are three obvious potential effects: 1) Foley's seat will go to the Democratic candidate Tim Mahoney; 2) Dennis Hastert will be forced to resign as House Speaker; 3) The scandal flips other congressional races nationally to Democrats, perhaps resulting in a Democratic house majority.

Regarding the first question, I fully expect Tim Mahoney to defeat substitute candidate Joe Negron (even though Negron is a solid candidate in my opinion). I think that local voters will want to punish Foley and the Republican party for this scandal, making it very difficult for Negron to win. Plus, Foley's name will appear on the ballot as required by Florida law, and I can't imagine a majority of the voters putting a check by that guy's name.

The second question is whether Dennis Hastert will be forced to resign his speakership. The key issue here is whether Hastert knew, or should have suspected, that Foley was having inappropriate contact with congressional pages. If so, he needs to resign. I am inclined to think that Hastert probably should have had his suspicions raised when he was notified about some of Foley's messages. His excuse that he was asked by the page's family not to go public is insufficient simply because he owed it to the rest of the pages to make sure that nothing shady was going on. However, I do not think Hastert will resign unless it can be shown that he knew about the more salacious instant messages (which is unlikely) because of the political ramifications of such an act. It would be a tacit admission of guilt and serve to admit that the entire Republican leadership is somehow culpable for Foley's act. This would be incredibly damaging politically, and thus I don't see it happening. As for my personal thoughts, I think Hastert failed to show strong leadership and wisdom and also acted calculatingly for purposes of avoiding a scandal. Even if he does not resign before the election, I think the Republicans should seek a new minority leader after the elections.

The third question is whether this will be a tipping point that results in the Democrats taking back the House of Representatives. I think that it will result in just that. This scandal is going to depress Evangelical turnout sufficiently in some close races, and I wouldn't be surprised if a decent number of Republican voters decide to punish the party and vote for a Democratic candidate. Plus, moderate swing voters will also be rightly appalled by the scandal and be more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate in the voting booth. In the end, it will be impossible to know if the Foley scandal will be what tips the House to the Democrats, but if it happens rest assured that the whole episode certainly didn't help Republican candidates.

Sports: MLB Division Series (1st Round) Playoff Predictions

Baseball's regular season has ended, and the playoffs will begin this Tuesday with Division Series games in each league. The Division series features four different matchups of best of five series, with the winners advancing to the League Championship Series to play for the right to be in the World Series. This year, the American League has almost all of the premier teams in baseball, while the National League is the weakest that I can remember it. However, I expect the various matchups in each league's playoffs to be very competitive because in the AL nothing but quality baseball clubs will be competing, while in the NL nothing but flawed and mediocre clubs will do battle. Here is what I think will happen in the first round Division Series games.

American League
Oakland A's over Minnesota Twins (3 games to 2): The Twins won the Central Division while the A's won the Western Divsion. The majority of commentators are picking the Twins because they played very well down the stretch of the regular season, they have home-field advantage, and Johan Santana (perhaps baseball's best pitcher) could potentially pitch 2 of the 5 games in the series. However, I think Oakland will win the series because of their superior starting pitching depth. Barry Zito is capable of beating Santana if he is on his game, and I just have a feeling that since public opinion is that Santana is close to unbeatable at home, he probably will do just that in these playoffs (he is good, but no one is unbeatable). After Santana, the Twins have two rookies who will start for them on the mound along with Brad Radke, who is an excellent veteran pitcher but is pitching with a stress fracture in his shoulder. I like the chances of a rested Rich Harden, Dan Haren, and Joe Blanton winning those matchups. In the end, I think that the teams split the first four games, and that Johan Santana pitches well in game 5 but doesn't figure in the decision as the A's win late and advance to the ALCS.

New York Yankees over Detroit Tigers (3 games to 2): The Tigers struggled down the stretch and ended up settling for the wildcard and having to face the high-powered Yankees in the first round. Despite their struggles, I think Detroit has an excellent chance to win this series, but that they will fall just short. The Yankees hitting is the best in baseball with guys like Abreu, Jeter, A. Rodriguez, Matsui, Sheffield, Damon, Giambi and more capable of touching up almost any pitcher for runs. The Tigers have some good pitchers, but they are young and guys like Verlander and Bonderman appeared to tire down the stretch. I think the Yankees will make the Tigers starters throw plenty of pitches and wear them down. However, the Yanks' pitching is hardly a sure thing as Mussina is solid, but R. Johnson and J. Wright have been inconsistent and C.M. Wang will be tasting his first bit of major MLB playoff pressure. Both squads have good bullpens, with the Tigers stronger at middle relief (Zumaya) and the Yankees stronger at closer (Rivera). That being the case, the team that gets to the other team's starting pitcher for some runs will be the one that wins this series. Given the Yankees firepower, I think they are in a little better position to do just that.

National League
Cardinals over Padres (3 games to 2): Pretty much everyone is counting out the Cardinals after they almost blew a 7 game lead with 12 to play to the Astros. However, the National League is incredibly weak this year, and the Cards probably have the best hitter in the playoffs with Albert Pujols and the best pitcher in Carpenter, which in my mind makes them dangerous. The Padres are considered the team with the strongest pitching, but it is far from dominating after Jake Peavy, as aging starters David Wells, and Woody Williams will join Chris Young will match up against Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan, and Anthony Reyes. Those games could go either way in my opinion, particularly since the Padres have had trouble scoring runs all year. The Cardinals bullpen is certainly weak, but I am not sure if San Diego can take advantage of that fact since its two biggest name hitters, Brian Giles and Mike Piazza, are past their prime. In a fairly close matchup, it is always wise to look for a difference-maker, and I think that Albert Pujols is going to put his team on his back and carry them to a hard-fought series win.

Dodgers over Mets (3 games to 1): The Mets were the only National League team to register a legitimately good season, winning 97 games and running away with the Eastern Divsion title. Thus, they are the World Series favorite in the NL. The Mets are far from a perfect team, though, as they have serious problems in their starting rotation. With Pedro Martinez missing, they have an aged starting rotation consisting of Orlando Hernandez, Tom Glavine, and Steve Trachsel, none of whom were dominating this year. The four starter is a true rookie, John Maine. The Dodgers have the superior rotation with Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux and rookie H.C. Kuo. The Mets have the better hitters with guys like Carlos Delgado, David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran swinging the bats, but the fact they haven't played a meaningful game for months worries me. That and their potentially disastrous rotation. El Duque Hernandez is going to start game one for the Mets, and I think he has run out of smoke and mirrors and will lose that one. After that, the Dodgers will have the momentum and the New York pressure will get to a Mets team filled with guys who have no playoff experience. The result will be the biggest upset of this year's postseason.

Christianity: Thoughts on the Beatitudes Part 1

Attempting to define what the good life is and how to live it was the primary pursuit of the great philosopher Socrates. Put another way, the quest is to determine what is the proper way to live life. This weekend I was reminded of the importance of this question at a beach retreat at St. George Island. Jim Divine, the pastor of Watermark Church in Tallahassee, was the retreat speaker. The Beatitudes were the focus of Pastor Divine's comments during the first session.

The Beatitudes are Jesus' declaration of the personal virtues, actions, and patterns of life that, when present in a life result in a person being blessed. The term blessed in the greek means "large or long" and "happy", so the term appears to mean that the greatest degree of happiness goes to the person who does each of these things. The next question then is what does it mean to be prounced to have "great happiness." Happiness is contingent on how a person's life is being led and the circumstances of that life. This is not to decry happiness, for it is God's will that our happiness be contingent on our circumstances. For instance, the happiness that is experienced in heaven is contingent on the circumstance of our being in the presence of God. Different circumstances and different actions lead to different types of happiness and different reasons why a person is happy.

Here, Jesus is speaking of the greatest happiness, and thus the virtues and actions listed here are those that lead to the greatest happiness. Because God is good, the happiness that is being spoken of here is a happiness that stems from goodness, for the greatest happiness cannot be contrary to the nature of God, who is good. If happiness is good, then the greatest happiness is found in the person of God. Thus the greatest happiness for each of us stems from the character and characteristics of God and being in the circumstance of being in right relation to God. This encompasses all areas of life, and all good things: being loved by and the love of God, love of and being loved by family and friends, enjoyment of God's creation, and much more. Thus, the teaching that Jesus is giving regards those virtues and characters of life that, when enacted in all spheres of life, lead to the greatest degree of happiness.

In the next post in this series, I'll take a look at the first four of the beatitudes and analyze what each instruction entails, and nature of the blessing that corresponds to that virtue or action.