News: North Korean Cretin

North Korea and it's "dear leader" Kim Jong Il claimed on Monday October 9th that they has successfully detonated a nuclear weapon. All rational nations, including the US, immediately condmened the action and stated that coercive diplomatic action could be expected. Certainly, this is a wise move as North Korea's communist regime under Kim Jong Il is dangerous--not because they are likely to start a war in the region, but rather because the nation is so poor, they might be willing to sell nuclear know-how and materials for the right price. Though it may seem like a terrible idea to sell nuclear materials and plans to terrorists or outside parties as it might earn you some missle strikes from the US, but North Korea's leader is not the most predictable or perhaps even mentally stable leader.

North Korea detonated the bomb in order to increase its own security against possible attacks from China or the US, and to increase the nation's prestige and bargaining power in the international community. Though there has been some question as to how successful the nuclear test was, there now appears little doubt that one occurred. The goal of the US and most of the international community will be to pressure North Korea to give up its nuclear ambitions and end its development of nuclear weapons. Diplomacy will be the means used by the US to achieve this goal, but China and Russia are going to attempt to use the situation to their advantage. Particularly in the case of China, North Korea constitutes a fellow Communist country and a nation that it can try to use to increase China's prestige and power in the region. China views itself as the primary power broker in the far east, and undoubtedly wants to be in the position to dictate what can and cannot be done to its neighbor. Additionally, a little bit of perceived instability in the region does not hurt the Chinese. North Korea is not about to attack China, and if North Korea were to sell nuclear materials to rogue states or terrorist nations, it is unlikely those materials would be used to attack the Chinese. To the extent that China is viewed as a necessary stabilizing power in the region, it will strengthen that nation's bargaining power on a multitude of issues. Look for China to allow sanctions, but use it's possible veto in the UN Security Council to water them down moderately.