John McCain is the underdog in the '08 presidential election (my official prediction for months now has been that Barack Obama wins by about 4% in the popular vote and gets about two more states than he needs in the Electoral College). However, I have been very impressed by the campaign his political advisers have run for him. From the "superstar" ads to the pick of Sarah Palin, they've made some bold moves, probably because they realize they are going to have to take some chances to win. McCain's announced suspension of campaign activities and Friday's foreign policy debate for the purpose of going back to Washington to work on the Wall Street bailout legislation is another bold move and one that I believe will work in McCain's favor.
Senator McCain had pulled even with Sen. Obama in the polls following the Republican convention. However, the failure of Lehman Bros., the government bailouts of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and AIG, and the proposed $700 billion bailout of the financial services industry through purchases of troubled mortgage backed securities is a potentially fatal blow to McCain's campaign. The average American is angry that over $1 trillion dollars could be used in assistance to Wall Street companies, while similar feeding from the government trough is not afforded the common man. Because people generally associate Republicans with favoring big business and Wall Street, that anger is being directed more towards Republicans and thus John McCain, as shown by recent polls that McCain is falling behind by about 5%-10%. Even if the bailout were approved and it succeeds in stabilizing the market, voters will still be extremely angry about such a large expenditure of taxpayer money going to the rich, which will allow Sen. Obama to use populist rhetoric effectively against McCain by associating his party with favoritism to Wall Street.
McCain's only hope is to come out strongly as an advocate for the "common man" and hammer "big business" and Wall Street for its irresponsibility. McCain's move to suspend his campaign and head back to Washington to work on the pending economic legislation is a gambit that can help him do this, particularly if Obama is stupid enough to keep campaigning and isn't a major part of the negotiations in Congress. For it to work, McCain will need to be out in front of the issue, lambasting Wall Street and demanding it be held responsible, while also insisting on reforms to protect the common man; news reports will not be able to avoid reporting on McCain if he is forceful and loud enough. McCain will also need to actively criticize both proposals by liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans as needed to establish his reformer credentials in a time of crisis. Then, he needs to pick a limited number of negotiating demands and either make sure they are in the bill or rip the President and Congress for not enacting his proposals. Through this, McCain can portray himself as a man of action who is fighting "for the people" and putting "country first" while Obama talks about the problem in his campaign stops. McCain will have to be forceful and get some results, the latter of which makes this the risky move that it is since Congress could certainly pass something deeply unpopular with the American people, or even worse see the market go into a tailspin despite passing a plan which will result in McCain being more closely identified with a failed plan even if both he and Obama vote for it. However, when the odds are against you, you need to make bold political moves and I think this one was worth making. It also has the additional value of being the right thing to do as John McCain is an member of the Senate and as such should be involved in negotiating the bailout package.
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